On Sun, 07 Apr 2024 22:05:54 +0100, Recliner wrote:

> On Sun, 7 Apr 2024 18:25:40 +0100, Roland Perry <roland@perry.uk> wrote:
>
>>In message <d9351jhhkf9d63e42q3c60sobocdfrhvuk@4ax.com>, at 13:23:45 on
>>Sun, 7 Apr 2024, Recliner <recliner.usenet@gmail.com> remarked:
>>>On Sat, 6 Apr 2024 17:04:15 +0100, Graeme Wall
>>><rail@greywall.demon.co.uk> wrote:
>>>
>>>>On 06/04/2024 16:53, Muttley@dastardlyhq.com wrote:
>>>>> On Sat, 06 Apr 2024 15:46:57 GMT Recliner
>>>>> <recliner.usenet@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>>>> <Muttley@dastardlyhq.com> wrote:
>>>>>>> The Tories merging with Reform would be a much bigger deal and
>>>>>>>simply won't happen. What might happen is a load of Reform
>>>>>>>candidates decide to join the tories anyway after the election as
>>>>>>>there'll be plenty of candidate vacancies for the next one.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> You may think it an unlikely strategy, but Richard Tice and others
>>>>>> are pouring a lot of money into it.
>>>>>
>>>>> If they want to waste their money thats up to them but it won't
>>>>>happen. Plus while the tories will lose the next election - unless
>>>>>starmer starts strangling kittens in the meantime - I don't think
>>>>>it'll be quite the wipeout that the polls are suggesting.
>>>>
>>>>We will get an early indication in about 3 weeks.
>>>
>>>I suspect not. The Tories will certainly do very badly in the locals,
>>>but they're rarely a good guide to a subsequent general election.
>>
>>I agree, the pothole party often wins many seats in local elections on
>>local issues (often completely unfunded pipe dreams).
>>
>>That doesn't scale to general elections.
>
> Also, turnout is very low at locals, and their results don't tell us
> much about how the missing voters will vote if they turn out at the GE.
> Locals are also seen as a protest vote against the government, but GE's
> are assumed to be more important.

We have a full-house of elections here in Romania this year (locals,
Euros, Parliamentary and Presidential). All bar Presidential attract
fairly risible turnout (Romanians vastly overestimate the power of the
President in their own system of governenance...), but the locals are
probably actually the most important in terms of day to day life - Mayors
here hold real budgets and real power (while whoever you vote for in the
parliament/senate is somewhat irrelevant given the constantly shifting
alliances and coalitions that make up the government at any moment in
time.)

Anyway, this year it has been determined, one would think pragmatically,
to hold the European and Local elections on the same day, to maximise
turnout and minimise costs. This would seem eminently sensible to any
neutral observer, but amusingly enough the small (read: Russian-funded
far-right) parties have blown their tops at what an outrage it is. For
some reason, they don't see maximising turnout as being in their best
interests...