Graeme Wall <rail@greywall.demon.co.uk> wrote:
> On 31/12/2019 13:52, Tweed wrote:
>> Recliner <recliner.usenet@gmail.com> wrote:
>>> On Tue, 31 Dec 2019 11:48:51 +0000, Roland Perry <roland@perry.co.uk>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> In message <quf839$3cu$1@gioia.aioe.org>, at 10:32:09 on Tue, 31 Dec
>>>> 2019, Tweed <guesswho@who.com> remarked:
>>>>
>>>>> UK train operators typically begin their franchises in the red because of
>>>>> the investments they make in them, and end them narrowly in the black.
>>>>
>>>> While some of the costs might be front-loaded, the premiums tend to be
>>>> back-loaded, as several operators of the ECML have experienced badly.
>>>
>>> I don't know if that ECML-style backloading applies in all cases. In
>>> particular, ScotRail is heavily subsidised, rather than ever paying a
>>> premium, so the profile might look quite different.
>>>
>>
>> I do wonder why overseas state owned operators bother with our franchises.
>> Well, a step further, why does anyone ever bother. The potential for losses
>> seems huge and the profits to be made small. But yet they keep on coming.
>>
>
> Not any longer they don't it would appear.
>

Yes, the number of bidders has now dropped below the DfT's own minimum
standard.

I think the new-style contracts will move most of the financial risk to the
government. The operators will just be running under the new franchising
authority's directions, similar to LO or TfW.